2013

Markets have failed to correct 15 or even 10% for a record period of time during this cyclical bull market. Given the stretched valuations, this makes the market vulnerable to a pullback. What are the types of events which could precipitate…

Niels Jensen: How to spot a bubble? Being closer to the exit point does not, however, imply bubble behaviour. Yes, there are signs of excesses creeping back in to the markets. however, I do not see much in terms of the classic signs of…

News links for 17 Dec 2013

The internationalization of the Chinese yuan has been a major story this year. We have been suspicious that much of what passes for the internationalization yuan has been the "Sino-ificiation of Hong Kong and symbolic measures like…

The Eurozone recovery continues to be uneven, powered primarily by a pickup in export-driven manufacturing and with only some nations participating. In particular we are witnessing a significant divergence between the area’s two largest…

The scenario I laid out for Europe for 2014 in three posts on the global economy last week is one of muddling through. However, whereas in the US, there are upside risks, in Europe the risks are mostly to the downside, politically and…

News links for 16 Dec 2013

An increase in government borrowing to fund medium-term investment is not going to result in out-of-control inflation. But failure of capital investment due to an out-of-control capital account deficit will in the end impoverish Germany.

Most economic analysts are in a bullish frame of mind regarding the outlook for 2014. I believe 2014 will be better than 2013. Nevertheless, there are risks to this optimism, both regarding the real economy and the valuation of shares.…

News links for 13 Dec 2013