2012

Lakshman Achuthan is sticking to his call that the US will enter recession in the second half of 2012. He spoke to CNBC's Squawk Box crew about it this morning. Take a look.

"The German government has, for the first time, released hundreds of pages of documents from 1994 to 1998 on the introduction of the euro and the inclusion of Italy in the euro zone."

Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard clearly doesn't understand the financial sector balances because she is about to make a policy mistake which will likely tip her economy into recession. This is a gold-level post.

So momentum is weakening across the entire global economy at the present point, not just in say Europe, or China. Global output is still growing but it is growing at an increasingly weaker pace. What could change that?

we are seeing an ever shrinking number of people paying an ever greater portion of the taxes. Though they also are the ever shrinking number of people acquiring an ever greater portion of the wealth. There is little that matches the…

Later this week, I plan to write a more comprehensive post on the European sovereign debt crisis to incorporate what we have learned since the French and Greek elections. Here's a short preview of what I will have to say.

Our brains are not calibrated to deal with the unexpected. Most of us believe we are good risk managers but in reality we are not. Most of us trust that risk can always be quantified and expressed through some fancy modelling whereas,…

The set up for having temporary tax and stimulus measures expire risks a new recession and such a downturn would be ugly, especially given the elevated level of US S&P earnings expectations and the relative P/E ratio of the US market

I wrote you last week after the third consecutive elevated jobless claims report, saying this was a definite harbinger of a weak jobs report. This has proved true. While March's gain of 120,000 jobs was revised up to 154,000 and…

The Swiss National Bank reported its reserve figures yesterday and the increase in its sterling holdings are notable and may help explain the its relative strength, despite data a soft real sector reports, culminating in the news last week…