Philly Fed survey shows collapse in activity

Just three months ago, my headline was Philly Fed Index Highest Since 1984. I don’t have many comments on the latest data because it is in line with the weak data we have seen out of the US in recent weeks. I will say this; I expect Q2 growth estimates to continue to decline as the data come in.

Here are a few points worth highlighting from the survey:

• Overall: “The broadest indicator of future activity fell sharply in June, recording its lowest reading in 31 months.”
• Outlook: “The survey’s indicators for activity and new orders turned negative this month, while indicators for shipments and employment fell but remained slightly positive.”
• Inflation: “Indicators for prices show a continuing trend of moderating price pressures.”
• Jobs: “Firms’ responses suggested little overall improvement in the labor market this month.”