ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Lowest In 13 Months

A measure of future economic growth fell slightly in the latest week, while its annualized growth rate continued to decline, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 122.2 in the week ended June 25 from 122.9 the week before.

The index’s annualized growth rate fell to minus 7.7 percent from minus 6.9 percent the prior week.

That was its lowest level since May 22, 2009 when it stood at minus 8.7 percent.

ECRI website

The signs that a double dip is coming seem to be mounting. The ECRI weekly leading index is certainly as close to showing double dip as it can get. In my view, monetary or fiscal stimulus cannot stop this from happening given the lag with which policy works.

Make sure you tell MacroAdvisors.

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