ECRI Weekly Index Growth Rate Now -8.3
A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to the lowest since July 2009, indicating that the economy will continue to slow, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 121.5 for the week ended July 2, down from 122.3 in the prior week. That was the lowest level since July 24, 2009 when it stood at 120.3. The index’s annualized growth rate fell to -8.3 percent after a -7.6 percent growth rate a week earlier.
When I first started to talking about the falloff in the short-term leading indicators a few months ago, I said David Rosenberg was looking at a –10 reading as a lock for double dip. I think that’s probably right. So I don’t know why so many talking heads are acting like double dip is an outlier among the potential economic paths.