Chart of the Day: How Does Unemployment Compare To Past Cycles?

By Edward Harrison On Jul 2, 2010

This comes via Economix:

The writers there have a two related pieces (with equally revealing charts) that I recommend reading:

I guess this is why they call economix the dismal science, huh?

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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3 Comments

Jbecker says 14 years ago

Mr. Harrison,

Thanks for the great, but sobering chart. I’m wondering if any of the “experts” are really being realistic about how long it will take the labor market to recover. Looking at the information in your chart, even if we were to suddenly find ourselves in a miraculous V shaped recover, it would take about 24 more months to get back to 2007 numbers.
Since the likely hood of that is pretty dim, 5 or more years seems more realistic. Are any policymakers really grappling with the social and economic implications of this kind of long term high unemployment and the distinct possibility that a large group of people who have been unemployed for so long may become permentantly unemployed?

Best,

J. Becker
1. Edward Harrison says 14 years ago
  
  J,
  
  If you listen to most economists parse the data, they all say that we are looking at 5 years minimum to get back to full employment. The reality of this is that it puts the economy at stall speed, such that it is more prone to recession and that certainly makes 5 years a very optimistic scenario.

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