How likely is an upward revision to Q4 GDP growth?
A big upward revision in the data would be what the President would call an unwelcome ‘good news’ surprise.
Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Browsing Tag
finance charts
Charts of the day: Jobless claims as a real-time economic indicator
Jobless claims: a good coincident indicator of the US economy. If you look at changes in jobless claims it can also help you call turning points in the economy. I have done claims graphs a few times over the past six years but I haven’t…
Chart of the day: Emerging markets and the Taylor Rule
According to Wikipedia, the Taylor rule is a “monetary-policy rule that stipulates how much the central bank should change the nominal interest rate in response to changes in inflation, output, or other economic conditions.” It is named…
Chart of the day: US house prices are up 12% in ten years
According to S&P’s Case-Shiler House Price Index, house prices are up on average 12% since 2003. The chart of the path of house prices during that time is below via the New York Times.
US stock market capitalization higher than any time except NASDAQ bubble
It is worth noting that currently both markets are pushing deviation extremes only seen four times previously. The difference has much to do with the "secular market" within which these deviations occurred. The current deviation from the…
Chart of the day: QE3 has been ineffective in growing credit in the US
Based on the data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis here is a single chart that shows credit growth in the US is continuing to decline while the Fed's balance sheet is expanding.
Chart of the day: Emerging Market Currencies and Local Currency Debt
The X-axis is the change in the spot currencies against the dollar since late May. The Y-axis is the change in the local 5-year debt. It is a useful way to conceptualize what has happened from a total return perspective. Korea, Czech,…
Chart of the day: U.S. Treasury losses in perspective
The histogram below shows the total return of long-dated treasuries over a rolling 4-month period since 2007. The leftmost bucket contains five periods that constitute the worst treasury losses since 2007. All five of these periods ended…
Chart of the Day: Performance across fixed income classes during 2013
Given the ongoing volatility in fixed income markets, it's time to once again to take a look at performance. The chart below shows where we stand on a year-to-date basis for major asset classes from a USD investor's point of view.