Yield Curve

Let's look at upside potential instead of downside risk today. And then let's put it in the context of the three yield curve outcomes I have posited. The virus I'll start with the thing that everything else seems dependent on these days,…

I was in Cologne and London last week, two places I know quite well. And as I went out, my trip down memory lane was greeted by the eternal progress of human endeavour. Whether riding the frequently behind schedule Deutsche Bahn by the…

Back in September 2018, Fed Governor Lael Brainard dismissed yield curve inversion as a signal of recession, something I saw then - and still see now - as a mistake. And what I said then is that this mistake would lead to the Fed's…

I've talked about 12-18 between curve inversion and recession months as a rule of thumb. That gives you at least a year to rotate your portfolio and get defensive.

Market data don't speak to full employment right now. Inflation expectations would be rising. They don't speak to the 4 or 5% GDP growth Larry Kudlow expects either. Instead we should be wary of potential stagnation, even recession. And a…

The Fed as the monopoly supply of reserves can and will push the market until it cries uncle. Powell's testimony before Congress is the Fed Chairman's first warning shot. Caveat emptor.