I've talked about 12-18 between curve inversion and recession months as a rule of thumb. That gives you at least a year to rotate your portfolio and get defensive.
Market data don't speak to full employment right now. Inflation expectations would be rising. They don't speak to the 4 or 5% GDP growth Larry Kudlow expects either. Instead we should be wary of potential stagnation, even recession. And a…
The Fed as the monopoly supply of reserves can and will push the market until it cries uncle. Powell's testimony before Congress is the Fed Chairman's first warning shot. Caveat emptor.