2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis
This post represents Marc Chandler's thoughts on key topics to watch in markets and the economy for 2014
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Browsing Tag
United States
US credit risk appetite hits euphoria
US corporate credit is outperforming other forms of credit assets such as commercial real estate. A good way to see that outperformance vs. global risk assets is in the components of the Credit Suisse Risk Appetite Index. For the first time…
Retail sales data in the US mean better growth expectations
The data for the holiday season suggest that that consumer spending in the United States remains robust. Though wage growth has yet to pick up, consumer spending remains robust enough to fuel further economic gains into 2014.
Growth rates in consumer income and spending have diverged
Consumer spending in the US accelerated in November, boosting projections for the GDP growth in the fourth quarter. While incomes grew as well, the rate of increases from the same period last year has slowed. With confidence improving,…
The Stock Market
For the fourth quarter of 2013, 103 companies in the S&P 500 have announced negative earnings revisions. Only nine have disclosed positive profit assessments. The ratio of negative-to-positive, 11.4:1, exceeds the previous high…
The big yield curve steepener unwind
Since the Fed announced the reduction in securities purchases ("small taper"), the treasury curve has undergone some strange adjustments. Why would the 5-year note sell off the most while the long bond rallied?
What is the labor participation rate telling us?
There is no question that labor force participation in the US has been falling as more people drop out of the workforce. But that measure could be misleading because as the population ages, the workforce will shrink naturally. Perhaps a…
On the juxtaposition of positve economic growth and market vulnerability
It was interesting to see the US markets follow through yesterday to the upside after a monster rally in shares when the Fed tapered large scale asset purchases on Wednesday. But rather than seeing strength in this, I see vulnerability…
Why the Fed tapered asset purchases
Yesterday, the FOMC decided to reduce the pace of its large scale asset purchase program from $85 billion per month to $75 billion per month. The Fed has long wanted to taper its LSAP program and move to forward guidance to normalize policy…
What will a Fed taper mean?
The big policy and market issue today is Federal Reserve policy. There is widespread interest in today’s FOMC meeting because of the possibility that the Fed could taper the pace of its large scale asset purchase program. But why is there…