United States

Markets have failed to correct 15 or even 10% for a record period of time during this cyclical bull market. Given the stretched valuations, this makes the market vulnerable to a pullback. What are the types of events which could precipitate…

Niels Jensen: How to spot a bubble? Being closer to the exit point does not, however, imply bubble behaviour. Yes, there are signs of excesses creeping back in to the markets. however, I do not see much in terms of the classic signs of…

This is a brief note because I need to alter my view on the Fed’s taper a smidgen. Yesterday, I said tapering is coming and I implied that it is likely to happen next week. I now think December may be too aggressive a move for the Fed.

In spite of some relatively strong economic data coming out of the US, risks to near-term growth remain. One of those risks comes from higher than expected inventory build. We saw this come through in the latest GDP numbers.

The data on the global economy continue to improve. The US expansion has continued, Europe is exiting recession and China’s growth his defying expectations of a slowdown. All of this portends well for 2014. Part one of the data and analysis…

Banks pay next to nothing on deposits while charging a rate that is often linked to treasuries on the loans they make. The steeper the curve, the wider the "margin". And given the leverage inherent in the banking system, even a small margin…

Those inclined to the Fed tapering in December seem myopic. The employment was not the only economic report that was released before the weekend. The US also reported that the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the deflator for core…

Today is the day when the much anticipated jobs report was released. And the data were good. The jobs report was not the big news in my view, however, because at the same time we saw the jobs numbers we also got personal income numbers -…

The US November jobs data are generally stronger than expected. The closure of the government and the re-opening suggests a two month average offers a more accurate read, which as we noted, is fairly steady job growth in the US. There are…

I am not a bull, largely because I have concerns about the long-term sustainability of today’s policy mix in Europe and the United States and the rise in equity multiples. But it is undeniable that we are seeing a more bullish outlook for…