United States

The investment climate has proven extremely difficult for investors to navigate. Fed tapering and better world growth was to lead to higher interest rates. Yet interest rates for the developed world have fallen sharply in recent weeks.…

Themes for today: US economic growth is poised to be decent in 2014 Europe will recover but not at the same pace as the US EM is really a China contagion story. I am concerned but not alarmed Watch high risk sectors like leveraged…

Behind all the noisy economic data over the past month, one key measure is telling the central bank to remain cautious. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the so-called PCE price index has grown less than 1% over the past year (chart…

Right now, everyone is talking about an emerging markets crisis due to the simultaneous turmoil in several emerging markets. I am not concerned about this being a full-blown crisis yet. At the same time, I do want to use this as a launchpad…

According to S&P’s Case-Shiler House Price Index, house prices are up on average 12% since 2003. The chart of the path of house prices during that time is below via the New York Times.

While JPMorgan's Loan to deposit ratio is particularly low, the bank is by no means unique. LTD in the US is at the lows not seen in decades. On an absolute basis the gap between deposits and loans is now at some $2.4 trillion and growing.…

This past holiday sales season was weak for a number of retailers in the US. But, discounting was the culprit rather than poor demand by consumers. I see retail sales holding up but a shake out in retail is sure to come as the deflationary…

Yesterday, after some intense industry pressure, US regulators (OCC, FDIC, SEC, etc.) collectively announced that the bulk of the so-called TruPS CDO securities issued prior to May 19, 2010 will be exempt from the Volcker Rule. Let's take a…

The Fed's "full-allotment overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility" - a mechanism to control short-term rates - is no longer just an academic exercise. Given how dysfunctional the interbank market has become, using the fed funds…

When I last wrote you I was talking about 2013 as being akin to the mid-cycle tightening year of 1994. In this view, we are well into a business cycle but it is far from over because of cyclical agents could spur the cycle on. But what…