United States

Here are some brief thoughts on the monetary system’s role in repeated economic crisis in the last 40 years.

There are two potential issues with the current re-leveraging cycle. First, the increase in the latest report, outside of real estate related mortgages as shown in the chart below, was primarily driven by increases in student and auto loan…

Expectations of future shortages in quality liquid bonds in US debt markets continue to persist. These shortages however are likely to be more acute for short-term paper. As a percentage of total government debt for example, treasury bills…

Themes for today: Real economy deterioration in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey is evident. Ukraine may be isolated without contagion. US data continues to surprise to the downside. Eurozone data may surprise to the upside. Sweden may…

Falling activity rates are often blamed on the long-term unemployed giving up the quest for work. And indeed the US does have a long-term unemployment problem at the moment. Research by Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement…

As I mentioned last week, I am on a winter break. So I haven’t been able to post over the past several days. But I have been following the news flow and wanted to make a few comments on what I am seeing regarding the US.

As high income economies improve and the financial sectors stabilize, central bankers understandably and rightly, want to move away from the unorthodox policies that were necessary to avoid an even larger collapse and more suffering.

Loan growth rate in the US, while better than in the Eurozone, remains on a downward path. The latest figures suggest that loans are increasing at less than 2%, while deposits continue to grow at 6-7% per year.

The supply of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continues to fall behind the potential demand - even with the Fed's taper in place. New issuance has steadily declined over the past year, with the Fed becoming an increasingly larger…

Themes for today: Commodities: soybean prices could fall due to increased supply. This would be troublesome for Argentina. Emerging markets: Of the fragile five, India is looking better, Brazil is still a big concern. Developed…