United States

Since October I have been saying that the US growth was probably going to decline for the remainder of this business cycle. In contrast, I have believed Europe would recover ever since data last June confirmed a broad based phase shift…

In trying to assess the trajectory of the US economy, one is struck by the recent divergence between the manufacturing and the services sectors. Most analysts blame the weakness in the service sector and the resulting softness in the labor…

Today’s ADP employment report came out with a figure of 139,000 jobs added to the US economy in February. This number is low and comes with downward revisions to past numbers. The ADP data are the last big numbers we will see except weekly…

Today’s links carry a widely-diverging set of opinions about the moral issues surrounding the situation in Ukraine. But since this is a finance site, I want to discuss the economic issues. I continue to believe the Ukrainian situation will…

Themes for today Emerging market political risk is now front and center. US data suggests consumption growth is vulnerable to poor wage trends. The European periphery banks are benefitting from lower sovereign yields. The potential…

Detroit was allowed to declare bankruptcy last year. While economists often focus on the barriers to entry, by removing the stigma from bankruptcy and easing the process, it makes lowers the barriers to exit. This stands in stark contrast…

By Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, Amir Kermani, James Kwak, Todd Mitton This post was originally published at Vox. Political connections affect economic outcomes in emerging markets. This column discusses new evidence showing that…

Yesterday, I began my Ten Surprises List. As a reminder, the surprise list is loosely based off Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has conducting doing at Blackstone and Morgan Stanley for the last thirty years. Wien defines his…

Marshall Auerback was on CNBC yesterday afternoon talking to Kelly Evans and Steve Liesman on Closing Bell. And his read on the US economy is like mine, 1.5-2.0% underlying growth. He thinks the weak Q1 numbers are not just weather-related.…

Brazil goes into a recession. Spanish GDP growth rebounds and outstrips German GDP growth. Gold rebounds to beyond $1600 an ounce. US GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 is below 2%. 10-year US Treasury yields fall below 2.25%. Abenomics ‘fails’…