United States

This isn’t a theme post. It is more like the posts I now do on Friday with a bunch of different ideas on important topics. But the underlying theme that interconnects the ideas is a deflationary-style slowdown. First, in Europe, the CPI is…

The West has accepted Crimea’s annexation and will likely only increase sanctions if Russia goes further The Ukraine – IMF deal will put the Ukrainian economy through the wringer Russia’s economy is going to tank due to capital flight…

It is now patently clear that US equity and corporate bond markets are overvalued. Much of the overvaluation has to do with low discount rates and the risk-on signal easy Fed policy has sent investors for over five years. Yet again, signs…

Market based information is telling us that spreads and leverage are now disconnected, fundamentals remain in-line with theory. Companies with higher net debt also have poorer liquidity positions.

By Frances Coppola Scott Sumner argues that when the monetary base is fixed, low interest rates are deflationary. I've emphasised the fixed monetary base because it is an important condition. If the monetary base is NOT fixed then the…

Many continue to argue that the rate normalization taking place now will slow business activity in the US. Good luck betting on that however. There is no question that corporate America had benefited tremendously from extraordinarily low…

Treasuries once again experienced what amounts to a sharp curve flattening in recent days. The market action resembled what took place after the initial announcement of taper back in December. The yields in the "belly" of the curve have…

Sanctions because of the Crimean crisis have had less economic impact than private portfolio preference shifts. However, as Ukraine moves into the EU sphere, further actions against Ukraine could be more far-reaching. China has moved…

So finally we get to see what the Yellen Fed is all about. And it is not as dovish as people thought it would be.While the noises Yellen made concerning the jobs market came across as dovish, behind the scenes a more hawkish tone has…

As Ukraine prepares to evacuate its military from Crimea, I believe we should look at upside scenarios in Ukraine. Most of my commentary to date has been focused on risk assessment. But the pullout of Ukraine from Crimea is the first major…