tail risk

The title of the post is supposed to marry what's happening on the pandemic front with what's happening in financial markets. The gist is that, in a world where unexpected levels of economic resiliency has been the norm, we should wonder…

it’s now much more clear that the coronavirus is a serious event risk and that financial conditions are tightening very quicky. The Federal Reserve needs to take these signals seriously to prevent worst-case outcomes, that include recession…

I woke up this morning to tweets from the amazing Lisa Abramowicz indicating a sizable move into risk-off territory for global markets on the back of coronavirus concerns. And because I talked about faulty market structure related to one of…

The question of whether markets are prepared for the default of such a large debtor is a good one to ask in thinking about tail risk as the situation at Petrobras encapsulates the intersection of emerging market US dollar corporate debt,…

This is my third post on tail risk now. I think the continued and broadening market volatility we have seen across asset classes in the last few months is a sign of increased tail risk and i wanted to put some parameters around how to think…

The private sector (particularly the household sector) is overly indebted. The level of debt households now carry cannot be supported by income at the present levels of consumption. The natural tendency, therefore, is toward more…

By Claus Vistesen Events in Japan and Libya do not seem to have derailed the ongoing positive sentiment in the market. But they just might have alerted various Masters of the Universe that black holes (or was that swans?) are both…

This is really motivated by being incredibly frustrated with what happened a couple of years ago. Obviously there was a financial crisis; that's not what frustrated me. I am one of the naysayers who was not at all surprised there was a…

By Niels Jensen The Absolute Return Letter, April 2011 “When models turn on, brains turn off.” Til Schulman I have been thinking a great deal about risk over the past couple of years. The depth of the financial crisis…

Here's more from the CNBC session with Kyle Bass, Managing Partner of Hayman Capital Management. David Faber introduced the topic as a discussion about tail risk and the "end of the world" trade. Bass took exception to that…