tail risk

Highlights The US dollar is trading narrowly mixed against most of the major currencies ahead of the FOMC meeting. The euro’s recovery, after disappointing price action late Friday and yesterday, has brought it back to within striking…

Evidently there is now a considerable debate out there about the famous (or should that be infamous) CEBS stress tests. Methodologically all sorts of weaknesses have been identified, but in many cases these are decidedly beside the point.…

The following post appeared on Wednesday at Rick Bookstaber’s new blog. Bookstaber is a market veteran who has long and storied history of achievement. He worked at Bridgewater Associates, ran the Quantitative Equity Fund at FrontPoint…

It seems a Q3 recovery is the new consensus of professional economists.  First, we hear Paul Krugman saying this, now Richard Berner and David Greenlaw are singing the same tune. The deepest post-war recession likely will end by…

This is another post I originally ran on Naked Capitalism last month. As you know, I have turned more positive about the potential for a cyclical economic recovery. However, I am unchanged regarding much of the sentiment expressed in this…

Raghuram Rajan is a bloody good economist, that's who he is. Rajan, who succeeded Kenneth Rogoff at the International Monetary Fund as Chief Economist, is also a prescient voice of reason on any number of different subjects. Recently,…