recovery

Frederick Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009). Two significant changes are pushing markets towards a shakeout. First,…

One common metric used by analysts to gauge how the economy is doing comes from freight or rail tonnage. If the economy is doing well, then more goods will be shipped via trucks and trains. This is exactly what is happening. Andy Lees…

In the next four months more than 500,000 job losses are baked in the cake. The reason? The temporary Census workers hired so far this year will be largely ending their assignments during the third quarter and will be looking for employment…

Lakshman Achuthan is a Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ECRI studies recessions and recoveries, forecasting economic and inflation cycle turns for all major market economies using a rigorous and objective…

By Richard Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute, Inc. Below is an addendum to the update sent out on Tuesday, addressing new data reflecting changes in consumer behavior concerning their debt: The Consumer Metrics Institute's Personal…

By Comstock Partners In our comment of April 22nd we said that the impression that the economy was undergoing a normal economic recovery was highly misleading, and outlined a number of key economic series that supported our case that the…

David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Scheff, has the following graph showing the dramatic drop in mortgage applications for home purchases in the most recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.   It is interesting to…

We have seen a host of manufacturing sector data over the past few days. Most of it has been pretty good and the data demonstrate that the global recovery has continued. Nevertheless, reviewing the data from the US, Europe, China and…

Let me wade back in to the jobs data this week. First, this morning we saw that ADP reported non-farm private employment had increased a seasonally-adjusted 55,000 in May. This comes after the upwardly revised 65,000 increase in April and…

I have been talking about "recovery fading" and the economy "rolling over" in the second half of this year. What I have been suggesting is that we will experience a slowing of growth to 1 or 2% in the second half of the…