recovery

Ireland, the first euro zone country to fall into a recession in 2008, reported today that Q1 GDP expanded by 2.7% from Q4 09.  While the headline is impressive, even if Q4 09 was revised to show a 2.7% contraction rather than -2.3%…

This comes via the ECRI website: A measure of future U.S.economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, but its annualized growth rate continued to fall, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.The…

One of my good friends who runs a small investment boutique pointed me towards today's chart of the day from Bloomberg showing the flight phoenix of US corporates' profit margins. I know that the chart is difficult to read but you only…

Meredith Whitney was a guest host on CNBC at 8AM ET talking about an anticipated housing double dip. The videos are below. A few comments first.  Whitney was late to the recovery party in 2009 in my view. But I found the recent Rip…

This morning ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan was talking about the recovery on CNBC. His take is that the recent slowdown in GDP growth is normal for the recessions since before World War II so far. If we dip even more from here, we have trouble.…

This week I have decided to do the weekly review both as a links post and in narrative form.  I have already posted the links of the most-read articles (see them here). In this weekly review narrative, I want to discuss the…

Growth in the ECRI weekly leading index fell further into negative territory. The growth rate for the week of June 11 weakened to -5.7%, down from -3.7% in the previous week, which had been the first negative reading in almost a…

Comstock Partners' latest weekly note demonstrates the core issue is a longer-term deleveraging that cannot be solved by fiscal and monetary stimulus. This likely means lower inflation-adjusted stock prices when the stimulus-induced…

A post by John Tepper of Variant Perception via John Mauldin “My best guess is that we’ll have a continued recovery, but it won’t feel terrific. Even though technically we’ll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment…

We have been watching the change in the ECRI Leading indicators as a predictor of economic activity.  I have posted a few times on this, first in April, then again last month. All along the way, it has been the rate of change in the…