recovery

A month ago I showed you a bunch of charts which indicated that the US economy was slowing. The upshot of the charts was that the economy was going to stall in six to nine months and that stock prices would reflect this – and they have.…

Yours truly is actually a macroeconomist, indeed with a knack for financial markets, but still; a macroeconomist nonetheless. However, you would not have gotten that impression from the writings here end last week where I worried a lot…

You hear the term "double dip recession" bandied about in the media a lot these days.  But there is no strict definition for what a double dip recession is or what it actually means to an economy. Have no fear; At the…

From his latest "Breakfast with Dave" missive. Well, I think the turbulent global events of the past few weeks underscore the reason why I have maintained a cautious investment approach for the past year, notwithstanding the…

Well it is now official - or at least as official as it is going to get: the Spanish economy sneaked back into growth by a short head during the first three months of this year. According to data published in the Bank of Spain’s quarterly…

The Employment Situation Survey was very bullish. We saw non-farm payrolls up 290,000 and a net upward revision of prior month of 121,000.  Moreover, there was an over 230K improvement in both private sector jobs and job gains ex.…

The BEA released US personal income and consumption figures for March today.  The data show that the growth in consumption continues to outstrip the growth in personal income. Personal income increased $36.0 billion, or 0.3…

The US turned in a fairly robust quarter in Q1 2010, with real GDP growth meeting expectations at 3.2% annualized. This comes on the back of a very robust annualized 5.6% growth in the previous quarter. This is the best growth two-quarter…

I was on two TV programs talking about Goldman today. That's actually a first.  Of course it's always nice to asked to speak about finance away from Credit Writedowns and I will provide you with the videos and some commentary later…

SocGen's Albert Edwards was out with a note today which is in line with my calls for a marked slowing of the economy toward the end of this year. He indicates that the rate of change in leading indicators in the real economy and in markets…