Achuthan: Leading Indicators Point To Slowing Growth; Jobs Outlook Murky
Lakshman Achuthan is a Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute. ECRI studies recessions and recoveries, forecasting economic and inflation cycle turns for all major market economies using a rigorous and objective methodology. They correctly forecasted this recession and recovery. Recently, their Leading Economic Index has been hitting recovery lows, something that both Albert Edwards and David Rosenberg see as significant for the economy and shares.
So they are recruiting back at half the pay, so that is a bad sign for the growth of the economy. Look for further job losses as customers are spending less, because they are getting paid less. It is a vicious circle.