recession

I have been talking about "recovery fading" and the economy "rolling over" in the second half of this year. What I have been suggesting is that we will experience a slowing of growth to 1 or 2% in the second half of the…

US corporate profit margins reached a half-century peak with the housing bubble. As in most recessions, margins fell. But, this time they fell precipitously, only to snap back to near that 50-year peak. The chart above from David…

Yours truly is actually a macroeconomist, indeed with a knack for financial markets, but still; a macroeconomist nonetheless. However, you would not have gotten that impression from the writings here end last week where I worried a lot…

For all the seven long years since the signing of the Maastricht treaty started Europe on the road to that unified currency, critics have warned that the plan was an invitation to disaster. Indeed, the standard scenario for an EMU…

Source: PBS

I agree with Feldstein that a double dip is a risk (a much larger risk than many believe).  However, this presupposes that we are in technical recovery, one I believe began last summer. Also see Stuck in the Middle from Tim Duy's…

Economist's View: One of These Things is Not Like the Others Fed's balance sheet rises to record in latest week | Reuters Columbia Center misses mortgage payment | Seattle Times Newspaper FT Alphaville – Stacy-Marie Ishmael –…

Consider this: Despite a rising population, non-farm payrolls in the United States are lower than they were a decade ago. The unemployment challenge is not just cyclical, it is secular. Sectors of the economy with a challenge include…

This is a post from John Lounsbury which will cover ground on the official designation of recessions and his own designation of depressions about which he has written in the past. Previous articles in this series have discussed: The…

I came across an article in the FT by Gideon Rachman which examined “How Reagan ruined conservatism.” It is an interesting piece which claims that traditional conservatives abhor populism and respect knowledge, while the Reagan Revolution…