mortgages

ECB stimulus The biggest development today was the ECB's announcement that it is reversing its stance on stimulus and offering new bank loans: The European Central Bank signaled a major policy reversal Thursday, flagging plans for fresh…

I have six sections in todays's newsletter: markets, macro, micro, the US, the UK, and China. So there's a lot of news flow, most of it negative unfortunately. The key piece in the mix of all of this is the 4.2% update to the GDPNow…

Yesterday, I connected the end of the carry trade and stress on Australian bank margins. The point was that the withdrawal of global liquidity wasn't just affecting emerging markets in our interconnected global financial system. Australia…

Short-term and long-term interest rates in the US have overtaken those in Australia for the first time in a number of years, with the Reserve Bank of Australia predicted to be on hold for another two years. This makes funding via US…

This is going to be a quick hit post to get some thoughts down on paper because a few threads are coalescing for me that I want to give some coherence to. The essence of the threads revolves around the tension at the Fed between normalizing…

A couple of weeks ago I told you about two properties in London that I was familiar with as background for my post on house price inflation in the UK. What was clear from those two examples and dozens of others I found is that rental yields…

I have a lot of threads to cover today. So let’s get right into it. New home sales. I want to start in the US first because the macro data backdrop is good. The first piece of data here is actually a bit soft and says that residential…

There are no big themes dominating the news today. So it is a perfect time to hit a couple of themes with an economic and market theme approach. Let’s talk banks, Japanese trade, the currency wars and deflation.

Back in 2012, three economists published a paper via the San Francisco Fed that looked at nearly every advanced economy business cycle from 1870 forward with the object of understanding the role of credit in the business cycle. Matthew…

Last week, the ECB announced that it would begin purchasing securities backed by bank lending to households and firms. Whereas markets and the media have generally greeted this announcement with enthusiasm, this column identifies reasons…