monetary policy

1 - How little politics matters to the market A couple of weeks ago, I tweeted the following after Michael Cohen pleaded guilty: For those surprised there’s no market reaction to Cohen, why should there be? It has no bearing on earnings,…

This post explains why the BoJ's latest move is a tightening of monetary policy.

Despite a 43-year low in UK unemployment rates, wage earners are losing ground. As the Bank of England decides how to respond, we can see signs of a global tightening in monetary policy.

Some thoughts on China's options as the trade war with the US escalates to an uncomfortable level

Quick post here. Earlier today, I sent out a note about the Bank of England's rate hike basically saying a large part of it was about the urge to normalize. When I wrote that I hadn't seen Gavyn Davies' most recent missive on central banks.…

The timing of the BoE's rate hike decision is poor - almost on par with the ECB's summer of 2011 hike during the sovereign debt crisis.

There are five big topics in today's daily newsletter: the FOMC meeting, Apple's earnings, stock buybacks, student debt, and the political fight between the Koch brothers and Donald Trump

The way to think of a flattening yield curve is as a signal that the market expects Fed tightening to precipitate a slowdown that halts or even reverses future hikes. It's the market's way of saying they expect the Fed to tighten and then…

These are conflicting narratives, yes. But they don't have to be because, as Minsky quipped, stability breeds instability.

The yield curve has flattened to the point where two-year yields are only 25 basis points lower than 10-year yields. I have been predicting this outcome for several months and see this as a level to worry about the Fed's ability to engineer…