monetary policy

This morning, I gave you an initial reaction to the jobs number, saying: A bad number won’t change the Fed’s forward guidance because the Fed has a tightening bias. But that bias means that a good number could tip us toward four rate hikes…

This morning, US stock futures are pointing to triple-digit losses after declines in Europe and in Asia. And the European indices are at a one-year low. There are quite a number of proximate causes for the weakness. But the overriding fear,…

Last week, WTI for November delivery passed the $76 a barrel mark. And since September, speculation has been rife that oil could top $100 a barrel in due course. If oil prices do continue to rise, that's going to have very different effects…

Back in late February, I told you there was a new hawkish tone coming from the Fed that I believed meant an acceleration of the Fed's rate hike timetable. When Lael Branard got onboard, I knew a regime shift was at hand. This has proved to…

Real quick here Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has added his voice to the hawkish chorus at the Fed. And what he has said bears noting because of what it means about the Fed's policy path. In a speech today at the 57th Annual…

I am looking forward into 2019 at this point. And if you look at the Fed's summary of economic projections from June, you see a median projection for the fed funds rate moving from 2.4% at the end of this year to 3.1% at the end of 2019. So…

Yesterday's daily featured four views on a potential global recession and financial crisis by the end of the year 2020. Nouriel Roubini had the view I think easiest to deconstruct because he lays out ten separate trigger points that could…

Is the fiscal debate political or market-driven? The eponymous debate in the US over government spending, debt and deficits is whether the issues are fundamentally market-driven or politically-motivated. For example, recently Trump economic…

A month ago, 10-year yields were at 2.89%. And so, we were at a level that yields had been on February 20th despite two rate hikes in the intervening period. Since that time, rates have shot up 10 basis points, with the 10-year briefly…

Back on March 1st, I told you to think of "Lael Brainard as the catalyst for Fed regime shift". Here's why: Back in late 2015, she and Fed Governor Dan Tarullo expressed caution about raising interest rates. And as the Fed increased the Fed…