monetary policy

Right now, we are still very much in the bull market phase. So the number of macro theses which make money are limited. US curve flattening and the prospect of Fed overtightening presents the best risk/reward.

Note: This post first appeared on Patreon on 2 Jul 2018 I saw a Twitter exchange this morning that reminded me that the Fed is facing a political crisis due to its quantitative easing program. And I think this will limit the Fed's…

Increasing the pace of quantitative tightening in lieu of raising rates would give the Fed the opportunity to test what impact this has on the slope of the yield curve.

Editor's note: A version of this post was originally published at my Patreon account on 13 Jun I have another more macro post on the Fed I am developing for later today. But I wanted to run this one by you because I am seeing a lot of…

My expectation is for the Fed to raise rates, keep guidance the same but be slightly more hawkish.

I have talked a decent bit about the jobs report in my last two posts here. So I want to say more about what the information in that report says to Fed members, given recent Fed guidance and speeches. I am going to lean heavily on comments…

The US jobs number just came out and the figures were quite good. Two-year yields spiked on the news.

There are reasonable scenarios in which monetary policy continues to tighten, fiscal policy does not loosen and the economic trajectory slides down into stall speed, even before the full economic impact of tariffs are felt.

I continue to believe that the bond bear market thesis is flawed. Money managers following it will lose a lot of money.

The lower the headline unemployment rate number goes, the more likely the Fed is to guide to two rate hikes in 2018.