Germany

Yesterday, I highlighted Germany in terms of downside global economic risk. We are experiencing a manufacturing- and trade-led deceleration in global growth. Germany is the most prominent large Western economy leveraged to both.

As I write this, Washington is fixated on the congressional testimony of Robert Mueller. My attention is elsewhere though. For me, it's the economy that matters. Over the past two weeks, we have had a "recession watch" on Real Vision,…

Yesterday, in the US, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices hit record highs. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not far behind. Financial markets are doing well. In the real economy, for weeks now I have suggested that the signs of…

No major catalysts in either direction Right now, there are no major stories that I think will have any meaningful near-term impact on asset markets. We're definitely still in  a risk-on market phase. And ostensibly, this is largely because…

There is a shift going on in Germany which has the center-left party moving away from the center after disastrous election results. And I think this is a significant signpost of the center-left's abandonment of the policies championed by…

In the US stock market, technology stocks are leading the rally from the deeply oversold levels in December. And that has a lot of people thinking the worst is over. But this is just a relief rally. The real economy is actually…

Recent news shows decision -making crossroads in the China-US trade dispute, in German politics and in Fed policy.

I want to start today's daily with the markets and the real economy before I branch out into more political economy including Germany. European economic numbers And since I mentioned Germany, let me start there. A slew of economic data came…

So I reckon I've got the politics out of the way now since I don't have a lot to add on the election in Brazil. So here's my daily post without the politics. Climate change I saw a great piece in Axios about climate change that I wanted to…

What to make of the Hesse election I have a wide assortment of political economy stories to present today. I can't pack them all into one newsletter. So I am going to break out a few into separate posts. I want to start with the news out…