Forecasts

Summary: The German elections were a resounding victory for German chancellor Angela Merkel. Nevertheless, she must still broker an agreement for a coalition government and this will change the politics of Germany and Europe. Below are my…

The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow to decide on the next step on monetary policy. In my view, this meeting is crucially important because it not only will mark a regime shift away from quantitative easing toward forward guidance,…

As analysts and official entities like the World Bank continue to downgrade their forecasts for medium-term growth in China, I have been asked increasingly often for the reasons I believe that 3-4% average annual growth rates is likely to…

Emerging economies are reeling as rising US bond yields are squeezing the most vulnerable and funding intensive parts of the market. But the squeeze in EM yields is merely an hors d'oeuvre to what is likely waiting in the wings.

Three articles in this Wednesday and Thursday's Wall Street Journal highlighted that data point to a continued cyclical recovery despite a lot of doom and gloom from all sides. Let me post extracts from those articles I would like to…

So the past year has been the year of earnings decline. Yet, the US stock market keeps powering to new highs. What's going on? It's called multiple expansion and it is the hallmark of all bull markets, cyclical or secular. The question is…

I continue to anticipate a recovery in Europe in the second half of this year. The manufacturing PMI data that were released this morning suggest we could be in recovery before the end of the quarter. This makes me relatively upbeat about…

Interest rates will stay low for a long time - long as in years, not months. In the UK there is a risk that a weakening currency may lead to some modest increase in inflation but, generally speaking, inflation is not a problem, and all…