Forecasts

Most investors are expecting 2014 to be a good year economically and for this to translate into a good year for investing. But we have never been deep into a business cycle with rates at zero or with no chance of a Fed hike on the horizon.…

Although still vague on the specifics, China’s Third Plenum November partially clarified the nature of the reforms that Beijing is proposing for China over the coming year. Of course very little was said in any of the related releases about…

By Warren Mosler Back in November my forecast for 2013 was 4%, which at the time was by far the highest around. The govt was spending more than its income by about 6% of GDP, which was about $900 billion if I recall correctly. But then it…

Clearly, most analysis for 2014 is upbeat. Economists are predicting higher global growth, higher U.S. growth, an end to the sovereign debt crisis and all manner of positive economic outcomes. And I think all of this upbeat analysis is…

In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty…

This post represents Marc Chandler's thoughts on key topics to watch in markets and the economy for 2014

The data for the holiday season suggest that that consumer spending in the United States remains robust. Though wage growth has yet to pick up, consumer spending remains robust enough to fuel further economic gains into 2014.

Since the Fed announced the reduction in securities purchases ("small taper"), the treasury curve has undergone some strange adjustments. Why would the 5-year note sell off the most while the long bond rallied?

This column argues that the legacy of public debt resulting from the crisis in the Eurozone is a serious threat. Both the size of the problem and the options to address it make life much more difficult for policymakers than was the case in…

This is a brief note because I need to alter my view on the Fed’s taper a smidgen. Yesterday, I said tapering is coming and I implied that it is likely to happen next week. I now think December may be too aggressive a move for the Fed.