Economic Data

Bottom line: I think we are in the technical recovery phase of a double dip recession that is a once in a generation period of balance sheet repair. To me, it’s a depression. Irrespective of what you call this thing we are living through,…

Today’s Yum! Brands’ earnings conference call was dominated by China. Management talked a lot about commodity inflation running around 8 percent and 20% labor inflation, which they do not yet see abating. This doesn’t square with the…

Turning to foreign sources of capital will only aggravate the problem from which Europe already suffers. Even assuming that developing countries are willing to take on risks that Europeans find prohibitive, their help will not improve…

US national elections are 13 months away and not coincidentally, the Congress is looking at a new measures to encourage China to re-value the yuan. While there is little doubt that the yuan in under-valued, though reasonable people may…

This fiscal uncertainty may be enough to prevent any ratings upgrades ahead, but we do not think the situation will worsen enough to lead to downgrades. Our sovereign rating model has Russia as a very solid BBB+/Baa1/BBB+ credit compared to…

A little more than a year ago, many investors were worried about the US state and local government finances. There were genuine concerns that what was happening in Greece could very well be the future of numerous US local governments. Yet…

All of the major sub-indices from new orders to production to employment recorded an acceleration in growth. This is a good report in the face of weakening macro fundamentals globally. However, the US manufacturing sector is very close to…

Professor Professor Xiang Songzuo from the Centre for International Monetary Research at Renmin University in Beijing told the BBC yesterday there would definitely be retaliation if the US moves to sanctions against China. If this scenario…

The public has been seeing their (per-capita) "slice of the pie" contract now for six months, and no amount of well spun "sluggish growth" can alter their view of a shrinking reality.