Economic Data

Greece’s decision to hold a referendum weighing on sentiment; global PMIs most softer thus far. EUR/USD has retracted half of its Oct. move in two days; Greek referendum increases disorderly default risk. US ISM manufacturing key report of…

50.4 is the lowest number since early 2009, during the depths of the recession. So this number, shades above contraction, is a big deal. In fact, the sub-index for new (export) orders index is contracting, meaning slowing economic growth in…

In terms of business activity, the Chicago ISM highlighted the fact that order backlogs recovered from two months of contraction and that employment was the highest in six months, even while new orders erased half of September’s gain. As…

Markets rallied strongly in response to the European developments. Yet it is an exaggeration to think that risk appetites returned as the whole month of October has seen equities, emerging markets, commodities and foreign currencies trend…

The sharp rally off the October 4th intraday low of the S&P 500 is a result of the assumed prospect of a real plan to save the Euro and slightly improved U.S. economic numbers indicating that we may not be in a recession right now. In…

We got two good proxies for the economic trajectory in the US this morning at 830 AM. Jobless claims were 402,000 with the 4-week moving average now settling in at 405,500. GDP rose an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter according to the…

According to the IMF, Iceland has graduated from its Fund-supported programme with unqualified success. This column begs to differ.

This is an update of a post I wrote at the beginning of September about European political dysfunction.

Fedex is a bellwether stock in the US because it handles so much cargo that it can be seen as a proxy for business activity. The company announced today that it expects record holiday shipping, albeit in its least-profitable residential…

Fernandez will try to maintain the unorthodox mix of policies for as long as she can, and has shown little willingness to more towards orthodoxy during her first term. Troubles will come both internally and externally, with the growing fear…