Economic Data

I would highlight three key points: new orders and production are contracting while inventories are growing. So, overall, I would consider this a weak report that also exhibited soft forward-looking sub-components.

My take: economic growth is moderating in Asia and that has caused central banks to become more dovish. Markets no longer expect the tightening cycle there to continue at the same pace. The 50 basis point cut in Brazil could be seen as a…

When oil prices start to decline, investors and economists get worried. Oil prices in large part reflect global sentiment towards our economic future - prosperous, growing economies need more oil while slumping, shrinking economies need…

I don’t see anything major to disagree with here. Nouriel makes a lot of sense. Notice he’s pegging recession odds at 60%. That number for him was 30% as recently as a month or two ago.

I don’t ascribe that much importance to confidence data as a leading indicator. Moreover, as we saw during the 2000s, low consumer savings can bolster GDP growth for quite a long time. Nevertheless, I agree with the underlying message here,…

Dollar firmer across the board amid month end repositioning; US futures suggest modest decline. Markets likely to remain sensitive to DM economic data; Case-Shiller & FOMC minutes are key today. EM continues trade directionless for now…

As the heat wave which has been hanging over Southern Europe for the last couple of weeks steadily eases off there is little sign that any of the warm air which is dissipating is reaching the chilled motors of the European and Chinese…

The impact of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony – his assessment of the economy and the further accommodation that can be provided to stem economic stresses into next week - will dominate market action into the next week. The G10 currency…

I doubt we are going to see wide scale debt forgiveness until defaults and debt deflation have taken center stage. But this is something to consider as it was an approach used during the Great Depression.