disaster

The phase of Knightian Uncertainty ends soon I am going to keep it brief today because the sense I have had for the last few days is that we have finally reached a news plateau on this pandemic. The news flow is horrific, with alarming…

As I await the US jobless claims numbers this morning, I am thinking about the international news broadcasts I listened to overnight. I think it's time to turn to a more global focus and get a sense of how countries around the world are…

How many people will die because lockdowns are lifted prematurely? That's the first question going through my head as I think about the logic of yesterday's post on the coronavirus lockdown. No sooner had I written that post predicting that…

Just after I hit go on the last post, we got a bombshell announcement from the Federal Reserve. And I've responded in real-time on Twitter. So, let me respond more quickly here very briefly too. The Fed is essentially putting a floor on…

It's increasingly clear that the coronavirus pandemic is going to cause a deep recession. And as retail investors understand the gravity of the situation, it will also cause risk assets to plummet, even from today's levels. No, equities are…

I want to present two sides of the argument that equities are putting in a bottom. I think there's no doubt that equities are trying to put in a bottom, simply because equity markets are deeply oversold after the massive downdraft in…

Years ago, during the Great Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. I used to do a daily news round-up with links to some of the day's must-read articles. So I thought I would start up that practice again today. Let me say…

We saw a glimpse of it in the data last week for the first time, but the crushing impact of the coronavirus is now here. And the damage it is about to wreak on our economies is significant. This is likely to be a deep recession. Analysis…

I have been looking back at my posts and re-reading my coverage of this global health crisis to get a sense of what I got wrong and why. I know this sounds perverse. But I think it's critical to actively seek non-confirming information and…

My anecdote on where we are This morning, before I left the house to take my son to school he said, "they should just close schools today. Why wait?" And so, as I took my son to school for the last time before it shuts due to the…