disaster

I have been studying up on what epidemiologists are saying about the coronavirus. And, right now, there seem to be two divergent outcomes for how the Covid-19 outbreak develops. And there also seem to be two potential approaches to dealing…

This post is going to be about the tightening of financial conditions as evidenced by a rush to safe haven assets and bond market spread-widening. But I want to start with how I am thinking about the economic impact of the Covid-19 virus…

Markets are diving across the globe today, with fears of the negative impact of the coronavirus making most headlines. I made my view on this clear on Friday. The coronavirus is a potent threat to the global economy, and could even force…

Whenever I give the 'all-clear’ to the US economy - even on a near-term basis, I am always a little uneasy given how little we know about the lasting impact the coronavirus will have. And sure enough, after yesterday’s post on the…

I am going to write mostly about the economic impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak today. But I have one or two other pieces to add here as well.

it’s now much more clear that the coronavirus is a serious event risk and that financial conditions are tightening very quicky. The Federal Reserve needs to take these signals seriously to prevent worst-case outcomes, that include recession…

I am looking at the US yield curve as I write this note and I see the 10-year yield is just one-tenth of a basis point above the 3-month yield. And the curve is completely inverted from 6 months to 3 years. Should we be worried? The short…

Irma, the devastating hurricane that hit Florida with its full force, was not as destructive as it could have been. But the impact on the economy, beginning with unemployment, has already been felt. As the Hurricane made its way toward the…

One lesson we should keep in mind as we recover in the aftermath of Sandy is that we are slow learners. Although the vulnerability of many of these communities is undeniable, we have resolved to rebuild the homes. That resolve will no doubt…

Given the poor track record of intervention, unilateral or multilateral, sterilized or unsterilized, there may be no compelling need to understand why the $100 bln intervention is not sticking. All sorts of possible explanations seem partly…