crisis

I know it's pure folly to predict what the Fed is likely to do on a FOMC meeting by meeting basis. But hear me out. Despite the fact that I see the Fed looking to remain as tight as they can reasonably be in order to save up firepower for…

Sorry for the alarmist post title. But the Fed has completely bottled it. I've been warning for some time that it could go this way. And now, we are in in the endgame. First, the Fed overtightened through 2018. Then, forced at gunpoint by…

For the past decade since the financial crisis, China has largely supplied incremental global liquidity. This is a fundamental change from previous decades where the US was the fulcrum. But, today the Chinese have realized they can no…

I haven't made a public statement yet, nor has Real Vision for that matter. But, for the last few weeks I have been working at Real Vision, the online financial media company led by Raoul Pal. Perhaps I will make it public in the coming few…

1 - Moody's: Widening income inequality will weigh on US credit profile Rising income and wealth inequality is a key social consideration that will affect the credit profile of the United States (Aaa stable) through multiple rating factors,…

Today is September 11th, a sad day for many people including myself. I lived in New York City when the terrorists attacked that day. And I witnessed the Twin Towers fall. A college friend who worked there was killed in the attack. I don't…

The potential for a state and municipal fiscal and public pension crisis is a defining issue for the next downturn. Underfunding guarantees problems. The question is whether the next downturn crystallizes a crisis.

As the Federal Reserve meets today to decide how to communicate its messaging on future rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, financial stability will play a key role. The risk of overheating was real. So let’s put some framing around…

This is going to be a quick follow-on to the last post on monetary policy as the only game in town. I feel like the obvious question that post doesn’t answer is this one: what other policy tools we should use? And I want to tee up that…

What happened in 2010 with Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland will happen again. But this time, Italy will be the first domino to fall. And when it does fall, Italian sovereign and bank credit risk will skyrocket. Caveat Emptor.