crisis

While most analysts have been focused on credit growth which has re-emerged after the sovereign debt crisis, cross border inter-bank lending has decreased, fragmenting the euro zone along national lines. In a crisis scenario, one should…

If I could name three countries that will be particularly difficult for the US to deal with geopolitically, I would pick Russia, China and Turkey. The first two are obvious choices but the third is going to be equally tricky because of the…

As the Brexit worries began two weeks ago, I flagged Italian banks - more than the UK economy - as one of my principle concerns, because of the potential to cause systemic damage to the euro system. And now the contagion is spreading, with…

As I start this post, I am naming it "Why I'm on US recession watch despite 2% growth". I don't know if that name will stick when I publish this piece; nonetheless, that is the theme I am trying to get across. When I look at the economic…

The extended period of low growth following the Global Crisis was denoted the ‘New Normal’ by some. This column argues that the period is still ongoing, and would be more usefully described as the ‘New Abnormal’. Far from being an…

As Brent crude hits 11-year lows, it’s worth thinking about why it is so low and what the likely outcomes will be. Warren Mosler has a view I think works regarding the Saudis as swing producer, targeting quantity instead of price and I want…

Last week, the high yield market seized up, in part due to jitters surrounding a high profile freeze of funds at the Third Avenue Focus Credit fund. The big problem for Third Avenue was energy high yield credit and the contagion from that…

Many markets have now recovered from the initial wave of selling associated with the Chinese mini-devaluation catalyst. This should be expected. Some of these markets will surely continue higher. Nevertheless, the Chinese devaluation still…

My base case is that the US stock market correction will not extend to major losses without a U.S.-based economic slowdown. Therefore, as potent as the Chinese devaluation crisis is as a signal for increasing global deflationary pressures,…

After hard selling into Friday’s close in the U.S. and a global selloff in stocks today, it is clear that the Chinese mini-devaluation has begun a crisis, despite the Yuan appreciating for a seventh day. The mini-devaluation is merely a…