bears

According to their own public comments, the EU, ECB and IMF do not have much confidence that their agreement with Greece will avert default. Instead they are apparently trying to isolate Greece, delay its eventual default, prevent…

n the short term, one of the only remaining stumbling block in the form of the ongoing default proceedings in Greece seem to be no match for the ongoing positive animal spirit of the equity market. Only a week ago, we got news that talks in…

All in all, the negative fallout from the EU sovereign debt crisis and the outlook for the U.S. economy are likely to have a strong downward pull on the stock market. Rather than reflecting fear, the market seems unusually complacent as…

Here’s a couple ugly charts we’re monitoring: China’s Shanghai Composite stock index and Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB). Do you think there’s causality here? Remember the “China is buying/hoarding every commodity” story?

Once again, the 200-day moving average proved to be formidable resistance for the S&P500. After trading though the 1264-65 level on the now expected daily afternoon market moving FT article the index couldn’t hold its water and sold…

We see no easy way out of the current turmoil. The result of enough fiscal austerity to relieve the debt pressures is a severe recession or depression. Historically, independent nations undergoing austerity have accompanied the policy with…

The bulls assert that the market is already discounting major risk and is reflecting widespread fear that may prove unfounded. That might be true if the market had collapsed as in 2000-2002 or 2008-2009. However, the current market is more…

We have been structurally bearish on equities since Absolute Return Partners was established in 2002. ‘Structurally bearish’ does not imply that we, or our clients, have had no exposure to equities throughout this period. Neither does it…

Since the fourth quarter of 1972 (when founded) the most important thing that the BRT does is a survey once a quarter which provides a forward looking view of the economic outlook of BRT's 140 member CEOs. One of the other major changes…

Just a few moments ago I posted on the fact that the US is officially in bear market territory. On Twitter, I said that “in Fall 2008, 10-year yields went to extreme lows and then the liquidity train went into overdrive. Stocks rallied,…