bears

Emerging markets underperformance that started in late 2011 is continuing. While part of the gap has been due to US equities generally outperforming global shares, we now have some 60% dispersion between emerging markets and the S&P500.

MPT is based on a number of assumptions, some of which are more restrictive than others. The question is whether the sum of those assumptions is so far off the mark that it renders the entire theory absolutely useless. Effectively the…

Last year, I was bullish on European shares and this proved the right call as they modestly outperformed. As this year begins, I am doing a lot of thinking about my much-delayed "Ten Surprises for 2011" post. And as I compile list items,…

I have been an observer of financial markets, and of those who operate within the markets, for almost 30 years. I have never before experienced investors paying more attention to career risk than they do at present. A preoccupation with…

I am going to be speaking on a panel on "Investing in Inflation" tomorrow. And I thought I would put forward some ideas here regarding what I intend to say. The key word describing where we are is biflation, meaning inflation in some things…

By Michael Pettis For the past two years, as regular readers know, I have been bearish on hard commodities. Prices may have dropped substantially from their peaks during this time, but I don’t think the bear market is over. I think we…

Comstock Partners argues that slowing growth as well as deficit and debt problems in the Eurozone, U.S., China and the emerging nations increases the odds of a deflationary global recession and a renewed down leg in the ongoing secular bear…

The bullish argument that houses are now generally affordable also does not hold up on closer examination. As we have repeated ad infinitum the average household has too much debt and is in the midst of deleveraging rather than taking on…

Jeremy Grantham: "The central truth of the investment business is that investment behavior is driven by career risk. In the professional investment business we are all agents, managing other peoples’ money. The prime directive, as Keynes…

We received a phone call over the weekend from a close friend and someone who reads our comments religiously. He had a question for us. He wanted to know if we were still in the secular bear market camp or have we thrown in the towel since…