bears

This is an update to yesterday's post about the inability of safe asset holdings to mitigate downside risk during equity drawdowns. As you know, I believe we are about to enter a potentially volatile period in the markets in September and…

This week I have been making the case for fading this market re-opening rally. I did not expect it to fall apart straight away. But yesterday we saw the first chinks in the armor. So let me tell you what I'm thinking now. This will be…

Yesterday was a nice little rally in shares on the back of good news about a virus trial and stimulus support in the US and Europe. That saw us get well over the 61.8% retracement level for the S&P500, where there had been a lot of…

I want to present two sides of the argument that equities are putting in a bottom. I think there's no doubt that equities are trying to put in a bottom, simply because equity markets are deeply oversold after the massive downdraft in…

Really quickly here: WTI has traded down into bear market territory today. I see it quoted at $61.38. The high was $76.90. Brent is also down to $71.81 from a high of $86.74. That's not official bear market territory yet. But it's coming…

Jeremy Grantham discussed his recent US market commentary with Consuelo Mack. The essence of Grantham’s comments were bearish for the US, suggesting investors could expect only a couple of percent real return over the next couple of decades…

Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio warned that a rise in bond yields could lead to the biggest crisis in fixed income markets in almost 40 years.

After hard selling into Friday’s close in the U.S. and a global selloff in stocks today, it is clear that the Chinese mini-devaluation has begun a crisis, despite the Yuan appreciating for a seventh day. The mini-devaluation is merely a…

Even if there are good reasons to believe that the prolonged rally can continue for a little longer, there are equally good reasons to believe that the current equity bull market may end in tears. I am not predicting a repeat of 2008-09. A…

Just after I posted today, I ran across two posts from March that I wrote on government and private debt that are related to theme of today's commentary on potential housing bubbles in Germany and Sweden. I am writing here to more tightly…