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Morgan Stanley’s V-shaped recovery is my W-shaped double dip
Dick Berner, Chief North American Economist at Morgan Stanley, thinks we are in for a sizable uptick in GDP for Q3. I must be honest; I am sceptical about this, but Berner is a well-regarded economist whose views can’t be…
Services ISM survey falls indicating no recovery
The July 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business disappointed as it dropped to 46.4 from 47.0. Expectations had been for 48.0. The new orders and jobs components both fell, suggesting that the services sector is still contracting and…
ADP report shows 371,000 jobs lost
US private employers shed 371,000 jobs according to figures released by ADP today. Expectations had been for a loss of 350,000. As this report was released two days before the employment situation summary that gives us the…
News from around the web: 2009-08-05
What You Get for ... $250,000 - NYTimes.com The house in Portland, ME is very nice. 'High Risk, High Reward' - washingtonpost.com McCain's Palin pick explained China’s growth figures fail to add up - FT Yet more reason to doubt…
Stephen Roach sees a W-shaped recovery for China
The US is not the only place where a double dip downturn is to be feared. China has its own economic imbalances to deal with. Too much money is being thrown at the problem creating malinvestment and a bubble economy, shares…
Do the personal income data demonstrate unbalanced reflation?
The Department of Commerce released the Personal Income and Outlays data for June 2009. What the data showed was a very unbalanced month in which personal income and savings dropped but personal consumption expenditures rose. In…
News from around the web: 2009-08-03
Unconscionable Math - Taunter Media The math of denying health insurance retroactively The scope -- and dangers -- of GE's control of NBC and MSNBC - Glenn Greenwald - Salon.com This is what happens when corporations control media…
ISM shows manufacturing sector close to recovery
Today the July 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business was released and the widely followed PMI Index came in ahead of expectations at 48.9. Any number below 50 represents contraction, so this figure shows that the manufacturing sector…
SEC charges BofA of lying to investors over Merrill but settles
Bank of America’s story in the BofA-Merrill saga has always sounded dubious at best. Ken Lewis has always claimed he was doing what was right by shareholders and America, that Gentle Ben and Hammering Hank coerced him into the Merrill…
Nighttime reading: 2009-08-02
I am actually on holiday in Canada for the next two weeks. So posting is apt to be light. I apologize if I don’t respond diligently to e-mails. I am looking forward to this because the weather here (Simcoe County, Ontario) is amazing…