Credit Writedowns

Given what I know about the Fed's reaction function, I believe pre-conditions favor Fed tightening irrespective of the slope of the yield curve.

As Wednesday begins, the question has to be: is the slowdown temporary or is it going to be more pronounced? And if it is pronounced, what do central banks do?

I have a lot of links on the Trump investigation. The key factor: while the Cohen warrant is Stormy Daniels related, it opens the whole Trump Organization to discovery.

Last week, Lael Brainard gave an important speech on financial stability. In effect, she said the Fed is likely to require increased capital buffers in the future. The key to if and when is in how large mitigating factors are in keeping…

Links on 'The Art of the Deal', Flint, Michigan, subprime auto, Facebook and more

Links on journalism, trade policy, subprime auto, Amazon, the Fed and much more

When China builds a trade surplus, it accumulates dollars. And it has to do something with those dollars. That means its purchase of US dollar assets is non-discretionary unless it revalues its currency.

Links on trade, Eastern European democracy, when cops become robbers, the coming hurricane season and much more

China's debt build-up has provoked increasing concern amongst Beijing’s policy makers. The resultant excess capacity exports deflation to the rest of the world. This creates pressures for China’s competitors which could engender a tougher…

Lingering concerns about long-term unemployment notwithstanding, inflation has taken center stage. The most recent jobs report, while weak, does little to diminish the Fed's view that rates need to move higher.