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Ten Macro Observations to End The Week
By Marc Chandler
The US dollar is going into month and quarter end on a soft note. The greenback had been generally firm against most of the major foreign currencies, but the Japanese yen, since around mid-month, but the news stream…
US economic surprise index sharply higher going into election
A quick post here. Sober Look has posted on Citigroup's economic surprise index, noting that it has started to roll over again, ever so slightly. But the trend is clear for the past two to three months and it has been sharply higher,…
Dennis Gartman on commodities, reserve currencies and gold
I spoke on the panel of a conference that backed into a keynote address by Dennis Gartman. I thought he had a lot of interesting things to say, a lot of which I agreed with. The basic theme of his talk - and this was an investing in…
Why oil prices are in a secular uptrend
By Frederick J. Sheehan
Editor's Note: Edward Harrison will be writing about the logic others feel support he other side of this trade based on views that Deniis Gartman espoused at an investment conference earlier today.
Frederick J.…
Is it inflation or negative real rates that matter now for investors?
I participated in a Euromoney conference on investing in inflation this afternoon. I was on a panel of five right before the closing remarks by keynote speaker Dennis Gartman and I wanted to make a few remarks about what I learned.
First,…
Rajoy was hoodwinked and now Spain faces a debt deflationary spiral
Two weeks ago I told you that Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s humiliating defeat to Merkel had narrowed options to sovereign bailout, monetisation or default for Spain. Now that the Spanish bank bailout is unraveling and Catalonia is…
Daily: Inflation worries in a fundamentally deflationary episode
I haven't done the daily for a few days because I have been trying to get out a few more lengthy posts. But today I wanted to highlight the inflation issue because I will be speaking on a Euromoney panel about investing in inflation later…
Biflation: inflation in the things you need, deflation in the things you don’t
I am going to be speaking on a panel on "Investing in Inflation" tomorrow. And I thought I would put forward some ideas here regarding what I intend to say. The key word describing where we are is biflation, meaning inflation in some things…
On optimism in the face of deflationary crisis responses, part 2
This is a brief follow-on to the last post on whether we should be optimistic, in particular now that the US housing market is improving. If you think about it, the problem now is that all debtors - public and private - are taking the…
Should we be optimistic?
I have had a lot of other things on my plate and haven't been able to write as regularly as I would like. But I am going to try to increase the volume of posts by putting out more quick hits like this one that capture my macro view without…