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Some thoughts on negative deposit rates at the ECB
ECB President Draghi suggested last week that the central bank was taking a fresh look at the deposit rate. There does not appear to be any economist that thinks it is a good idea. The reasons vary, but the two main reasons are that it…
On the demise of Nokia and more on the move to the Cloud via Adobe
I have a few threads on tech that I am going to breakup into multiple posts here. The first two threads are on Adobe's move into a cloud computing-only based software model and on Nokia's dogged pursuit of the windows mobile platform, now…
“Merkel knows best what’s happening in Europe”
These are the words of European Commission President José Manuel Barroso in a recent interview with Die Welt, a German newspaper. Rather than translate this article in full, I want to put it in context given Barroso's outburst about…
Frantically revising Japanese corporate earnings projections
Analysts' latest adjustments to corporate earnings forecasts for Japanese firms show many more upward than downward revisions. Merrill Lynch tracks the "number of stocks for which consensus EPS estimate has risen vs. the number for which it…
In the long run we are all in trouble
Now, you may well deduct from all of this that I am as bearish as I have ever been, but nothing could be further from the truth. The issues I have discussed in this month’s letter are clouds on the horizon which are likely to take years to…
Why I am bullish on Greece
I have been posting for a while now that I think Greece provides the greatest upside potential. Greece's sovereign bonds outperforming was one of my ten surprises for 2013 three months ago. And with bond yields now falling below 10%, Morgan…
Why I may be wrong on Portugal because of the Cyprus deposit grab
Portugal is going to market with a 10-year sovereign bond issue, its first since 2011. I think this is a pretty big deal. Think of it as a complete return to public market access for the Portuguese government, one of the critical…
Portugal’s Step Forward
This is an important day for Portugal. It is selling 10-year bonds for the first time in more than two years. Demand is reportedly strong. Today's 10-year sale follows the 5-year bond sale in January and heralds to full return of Portugal…
On Australia’s Rate Cut
Australia just cut its policy rate to 2.75%, the lowest on record. That puts Australia into the same camp as all of the other major economic areas, where policy rates are all at record low levels. If you believe that Australia has used…