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Economic data show Europe on upswing and US growth down
Since October I have been saying that the US growth was probably going to decline for the remainder of this business cycle. In contrast, I have believed Europe would recover ever since data last June confirmed a broad based phase shift…
Historical realities and 50% profit growth
There is mounting evidence, from valuations being paid in M&A deals, junk bond yields, margin debt and price extensions from long term means, "irrational exuberance" is once again returning to the financial markets. However, that does…
The ECB and the Eurozone Credit Crunch
Business lending in the Eurozone is very poor - flat in the major core countries and falling in the periphery. There is a desperate need to ease credit conditions for SMEs in periphery countries. The slight easing of interest rates on…
Will the slowdown in US services sector reverse with warmer weather?
In trying to assess the trajectory of the US economy, one is struck by the recent divergence between the manufacturing and the services sectors. Most analysts blame the weakness in the service sector and the resulting softness in the labor…
What is the ECB to Do?
By Marc Chandler
A discussion of what the ECB is likely to do at Thursday's policy meeting requires an appreciation of its challenges. There are four challenges that the ECB faces in nursing the "weak, fragile and uneven" recovery, as…
Back in the US, what are the data telling us?
Today’s ADP employment report came out with a figure of 139,000 jobs added to the US economy in February. This number is low and comes with downward revisions to past numbers. The ADP data are the last big numbers we will see except weekly…
A Century of Policy Mistakes
Unless serious action is taken, Europe in particular (but the U.S. is not far behind) is at risk of falling into a very deep hole from which it may be extraordinarily difficult to dig itself out of. Once in, it will prove ever so hard to…
Deflation and the ECB
The ECB continues to argue that there is no deflation risk in the Eurozone though many people dispute this. The ECB must act, and politicians in the Eurozone must allow it to do so. Treaties be damned.