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Monetary System
When will the Fed pause its tightening of policy?
If you've been reading my most recent posts on US monetary policy, the sense you would have been getting is that the Fed is shifting away from its tightening bias. And the main reason it's unclear what this means in terms of actual policy,…
More on the US Treasury yield curve inversion and widening bond spreads
Yesterday, the US Treasury yield curve inverted between 2- and 5-year rates. Right now, the 2-year is trading at 2.82%. While the 5-year is trading at 2.81%. So, the curve remains inverted.
The Fed minutes and concerns about the pace of rate hikes
This is my inaugural post on the new platform after I wrote you about changes I wanted to make. So, I hope this new platform is better than the old because it's being hosted at my old blog url www.creditwritedowns.com. Let me know your…
Recapping Powell and reasons why the Fed might pause as oil falls below $50 a barrel
Oil is one of several reasons the Fed might pause next year, rather than sticking to its three hike timetable. Housing is another. No wonder there was considerable speculation about a pause on the back of comments by Fed Chairman Jerome…
Powell’s comments weren’t that different from Clarida
The Powell speech is over and the stock market is up on the back of it because people interpreted his comments as dovish. Was it though? It depends on where you're coming from.
Let’s unpack Clarida’s comments while we wait for Powell
Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida gave a speech just yesterday on future monetary policy called "Data Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy". Let's look at what he had to say as we await Chairman Powell's own speech today.
Trump is making it harder for the Fed to ease
Trump's bellyaching about the Fed is only harming him. It serves no useful purpose. If he thinks it's a veiled threat, he's wrong.
Back to the Fed
The midterm election is over. So we can go back to worrying about the Fed!
I ended yesterday's political economy piece saying:
My sense, here, is that a divided Congress means we are in a ride it out period economically. There are no more…
The jobs number was great, but it’s all about the Fed now
This morning, I gave you an initial reaction to the jobs number, saying:
A bad number won’t change the Fed’s forward guidance because the Fed has a tightening bias. But that bias means that a good number could tip us toward four rate hikes…
European selloff highlights resumption of US treasury bear flattening
This morning, US stock futures are pointing to triple-digit losses after declines in Europe and in Asia. And the European indices are at a one-year low. There are quite a number of proximate causes for the weakness. But the overriding fear,…