Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Browsing Category
Monetary System
Market shift to bear steepening as important as regime shift under Powell
Back in late February, I told you there was a new hawkish tone coming from the Fed that I believed meant an acceleration of the Fed's rate hike timetable. When Lael Branard got onboard, I knew a regime shift was at hand.
This has proved to…
More evidence that the Fed will accelerate its timetable in 2019 as it did in 2018
Real quick here
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has added his voice to the hawkish chorus at the Fed. And what he has said bears noting because of what it means about the Fed's policy path.
In a speech today at the 57th Annual…
This is why I told you in March to listen to Lael Brainard. She makes the intellectual case for…
Back on March 1st, I told you to think of "Lael Brainard as the catalyst for Fed regime shift". Here's why:
Back in late 2015, she and Fed Governor Dan Tarullo expressed caution about raising interest rates. And as the Fed increased the Fed…
The Bank of Japan’s latest move is a tightening of monetary policy
This post explains why the BoJ's latest move is a tightening of monetary policy.
The squeeze on UK wage earners and the global tightening in monetary liquidity
Despite a 43-year low in UK unemployment rates, wage earners are losing ground. As the Bank of England decides how to respond, we can see signs of a global tightening in monetary policy.
Central banks: Running out of ammunition in the next downturn
Quick post here. Earlier today, I sent out a note about the Bank of England's rate hike basically saying a large part of it was about the urge to normalize. When I wrote that I hadn't seen Gavyn Davies' most recent missive on central banks.…
The Bank of England’s decision to raise rates as akin to the ECB’s 2011 hike amid crisis
The timing of the BoE's rate hike decision is poor - almost on par with the ECB's summer of 2011 hike during the sovereign debt crisis.
More on whether Powell’s comments about the economy were hawkish or dovish
The sense I get is that Powell is a closet Taylor Rule devotee. If I'm right, then the neutral rate is quite a bit higher than where we are now.
Fed overtightening risk now begins in earnest with yield curve at my predicted 25 basis points
The yield curve has flattened to the point where two-year yields are only 25 basis points lower than 10-year yields. I have been predicting this outcome for several months and see this as a level to worry about the Fed's ability to engineer…
The Fed’s fourth 2018 rate hike: proof positive of my accelerated timetable warnings
Increasing the pace of quantitative tightening in lieu of raising rates would give the Fed the opportunity to test what impact this has on the slope of the yield curve.