Despite a 43-year low in UK unemployment rates, wage earners are losing ground. As the Bank of England decides how to respond, we can see signs of a global tightening in monetary policy.
Quick post here. Earlier today, I sent out a note about the Bank of England's rate hike basically saying a large part of it was about the urge to normalize. When I wrote that I hadn't seen Gavyn Davies' most recent missive on central banks.…
The timing of the BoE's rate hike decision is poor - almost on par with the ECB's summer of 2011 hike during the sovereign debt crisis.
The sense I get is that Powell is a closet Taylor Rule devotee. If I'm right, then the neutral rate is quite a bit higher than where we are now.
The yield curve has flattened to the point where two-year yields are only 25 basis points lower than 10-year yields. I have been predicting this outcome for several months and see this as a level to worry about the Fed's ability to engineer…
Increasing the pace of quantitative tightening in lieu of raising rates would give the Fed the opportunity to test what impact this has on the slope of the yield curve.
Editor's note: A version of this post was originally published at my Patreon account on 13 Jun I have another more macro post on the Fed I am developing for later today. But I wanted to run this one by you because I am seeing a lot of…
The US jobs number just came out and the figures were quite good. Two-year yields spiked on the news.