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Employment situation summary puts US cycle peak at June 2012
As you may have heard already, the jobs numbers for the US came out and they confirmed that the US private sector continues to create 150-200,000 new jobs each month. This is consistent with moderate and does not indicate any signs of…
On the need for Spain to formally apply for an OMT-style bailout
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's economic policy is in tatters. Spain's economic descent is now accelerating, with output shrinking 0.7% in just the last quarter alone - the worst since crisis began in 2009. For the full year, output…
The ECB is losing the currency wars
Earlier today I posted an article in the links on the euro's move up to a 14-month high. As I write this, the euro is trading a 1.3568 to the US dollar, up markedly from 2012's low during the sovereign debt crisis of 1.2063 on 25 July. And…
On the shock contraction in US GDP
US GDP contracted at a 0.1% annualised rate in Q4 of 2012 according to preliminary estimates announced by the US government earlier today. This contraction was well below consensus estimates and comes as a shock to most of the analyst…
The bullish case for Apple
This post by Brett Arends on MarketWatch makes the best case for Apple bulls that I have seen.
Is Latvia an austerity success or failure?
Latvia went through a housing bubble and bust that was just as severe as Spain, Ireland, the UK, and the US. The policy response in Latvia was austerity. But was it a success? It depends on who you ask.
Having raised taxes and the debt ceiling, US Republicans have another test on public debt
As I have been predicting since the beginning of the year, I believe the Republicans will be able to force through some form of austerity before the budget battles in Washington are over this quarter. As the year began, we saw the fiscal…
Samsung is saying what I’m saying about mobile growth
Samsung released earnings today that showed record profit but they warned that the growth of handset sales was slowing because of increasing competition.
Why earnings contractions are coming for Apple in 2013
This is another of my ten surprises for 2013. Apple is down 50 points today, well below its shoulder line on a topping head and shoulders pattern. The stock is breaking down. But there is a lot more pain to come. I have been increasingly…
Predicting major correction in 2013 as contrary indicators are mostly bearish
Last year, I was bullish on European shares and this proved the right call as they modestly outperformed. As this year begins, I am doing a lot of thinking about my much-delayed "Ten Surprises for 2011" post. And as I compile list items,…