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Secular versus cyclical factors in equity markets
Continuing where I left off yesterday, it’s clear that the global economy is growing now. We see growth in the US, Europe, Japan, and in emerging markets. Economic growth is the norm, not the exception. And over the longer term, markets…
Dealing with confirmation bias in macro analysis at market turning points
My macro view for most of the global economy is upbeat. My only downbeat views concern deceleration of growth in emerging markets and froth in capital markets. But in the main, market and economic momentum is up and to the right. The…
The Chinese credit crisis gets messy
No one has denied that China was overdue for a credit shakeout due to the Chinese government’s desire to stem excess credit growth as the economy rebalances. The question has always been about how much of a shakeout Chinese policy makers…
Russia and China’s challenge to US hegemony
Recent economic and geopolitical events should be seen through a longer-term strategic lens. During the Cold War, we lived in a bipolar world dominated by the US and its Allies on one side and the Soviets and their vassal states on the…
Economic data show Europe on upswing and US growth down
Since October I have been saying that the US growth was probably going to decline for the remainder of this business cycle. In contrast, I have believed Europe would recover ever since data last June confirmed a broad based phase shift…
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 2
Yesterday, I began my Ten Surprises List. As a reminder, the surprise list is loosely based off Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has conducting doing at Blackstone and Morgan Stanley for the last thirty years. Wien defines his…
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1
Brazil goes into a recession.
Spanish GDP growth rebounds and outstrips German GDP growth.
Gold rebounds to beyond $1600 an ounce.
US GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 is below 2%.
10-year US Treasury yields fall below 2.25%.
Abenomics ‘fails’…
On Fed tapering, policy co-ordination and emerging market risk
I am concerned about what is happening in the emerging markets but not alarmed. Fed tapering was a proximate trigger but not a cause. All indications are that the crisis is hitting only the most exposed and vulnerable markets and that this…
The move to safe havens may have begun
While the emerging markets are getting a bit of a reprieve today, it bears noting that the move to so-called safe haven assets and currencies has begun. This suggests to me that George Magnus’ warning about this emerging markets crisis must…
Apple’s profit falls again in Q1 2014 on record revenue
Like last quarter, Apple set another record for revenue in its first quarter of 2014. However, margins at Apple have receded, turning year-on-year profit comparisons negative for yet another quarter. Earnings per share are up because of…