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Consolidated balance sheet approach gains traction as BOJ considers QE
The Bank of Japan is now considering whether to move to balance sheet expansion in its bid to lift the Japanese economy out of deflation. Japanese policy, which will then further tighten the nexus between fiscal and monetary policy, is now…
The Unsustainable US Economy
Yesterday I said that, given the housing rebound, it seemed ever more likely that the US economy would be able to power through the budget cuts from the sequester and the fiscal cliff. This is the asset-based economy at work. There is…
On Microsoft’s mobile strategy
An investment in Microsoft has been dead money for quite a while now. The stock has traded in a pretty narrow range between $22 and $32 except in late 2007 and 2008 during the financial crisis when it spiked and then plunged. The stock does…
On Sweden’s household debt problem
Sweden has been one of the countries to have best weathered the economic crisis. Despite a hiccup in its domestic economy and the extra deflationary impulse from souring loans to the Baltics in 2009, the Swedish economy has been remarkably…
On Apple’s China Strategy
Morgan Stanley had a very good note out earlier today reporting that Apple needs to issue an iPhone mini to capture share in China. This is what I have been advising as the market share margin trade-off is favourable for Apple's bottom…
On the horrendous economic numbers coming out of Europe
The European Union released figures for Q4 2012 GDP today and they were awful. GDP fell by 0.6% in the euro zone and 0.5% in the entire EU. Stock markets are getting clobbered on the news and the euro is selling off. This is not unexpected…
France’s poor economic outlook is Europe’s next problem
In November, soon after France and Belgium were forced to pump another 5.5 billion euros into bailed out lender Dexia, the ratings agency Moody's stripped France of its AAA sovereign debt rating. The interesting bit was that Moody's…
What declining handset sales mean for the mobile industry
While the well-respected Internet blog TechCrunch focused on the Apple/Samsung story in analysing the data from Gartner's latest survey on the mobile market, the real news was elsewhere. The BBC got it right in trumpeting that "mobile phone…
Payroll taxes take a bite out of retail sales
Of all of the elements of the US fiscal cliff, the most damaging from a consumer perspective is likely to be the increase in payroll taxes as it hits a broad swathe of consumers in the middle class. This was confirmed today via the release…
Nationalized Dutch bank investors fight expropriation
The shareholders and subordinated bond holders of SNS Reaal are now fighting an alleged expropriation at the Dutch Council of State. In addition, these stakeholders are contesting the Dutch government's position that shareholders and…